So far as possible we have used technically reliable research on which to base our conclusions, principally the National Equestrian Survey 1999 (NES). We also draw on the BETA Trade Survey 1996 (both were conducted independently by Produce Studies Ltd ). See 3.06 below

So far as we know there is no reliable research into the intentions of hunters who might migrate to other equestrian activity. We have drawn on some statistical evidence from the NES in Section 7.

The NES was not concerned with jobs. We have therefore used the GNP per head of population (£23,000) as the multiplier for employment calculations.

Farriers, Riding Schools, Breeders and Veterinary Surgeons all have representative organisations. We have included our interpretation of the relevant data in the Survey which covers these sectors so that you may see the whole picture. They may well have other membership data.

56,000 horses used primarily for hunting - 7% (NES Charts 26 & 33).
240,00 people hunt - 10%(NES Charts 11 & 20).
£23,000 GNP per head of population

The equestrian trade is made up almost entirely of Small & Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). Manufacturers range from major pharmaceutical companies where equestrian turnover is a very small part of the whole, to tiny one man saddlery workshops. The trade is highly dependent on wholesalers because of the very large numbers of products needed to supply the market. Bits alone come in over 100 different types in a range of sizes. Wholesalers will suffer no less than manufacturrers. The average equestrian related employment in the manufacturing and supply side is 6.5 people . There are 1200 suppliers employing 7800 people**

88% of retailers are very small sole proprietor or partnership businesses. 82% have only one outlet and 54% have a client base of less than 100. Average turnover is £130,000 pa.. 20% have been in business more than 30 years*. The vast majority are in rural areas. There are 1600 tack shops and saddlery retailers employing 4000 people, an average of 2.5 per retail outlet. ***

Feed merchants are normally agricultural businesses with an equestrian element. We estimate employment on equestrian feed business as the same as for retailers – 2.5 people. There are 1570 feed merchants employing 3925 people.

Services and Direct Suppliers) An additional group not included in the trade statistics because they trade direct with the public. They include stable and fencing contractors, horsebox and trailer manufacturers, pasture specialists, journalists, photographers etc. A large perecentage of them are in rural areas.

The group is coverd statistically in the Industry Section . Section 6.

Hunting provides the Trade with important income in the winter months. The possibility of a hunting ban has already had a debilitating effect because of a lack of confidence which has prevented hunting people from investing in equipment and clothing. 77% of riders do so all the year round (NES Chart 15)

The Survey shows that 37% of all riders are in London and the suburban South East (NES Chart 12). The Trade in these areas is nothing like so dependent on hunting as it is in rural areas. A ban would hit trade in rural areas like East Anglia, the West Country , Wales and the North far more than in the South East.

Typically riding clothing is 38% of turnover. Country clothing was not researched but probably provides a further 20 percent of income*. Tack and saddlery represents 38% of total turnover . New saddlery represents 18% of total retail turnover and feed and supplements 15%.

Hunting people spend more on saddlery, clothing and horse care products than the average rider but the NES did not cover this point. Hunting people buy more traditional leather tack and saddlery and subject it to much harder use than non hunting people. On average repairs represent 5% of retail turnover. The traditional saddlery craft skills in rural areas service this market. Hunting provides retailers with £27m turnover representing 1170 jobs. This figure excludes feedstuffs sold through feed merchants.

* BETA Trade Survey 1996.

Feed merchants

Feed merchants have been diversifying into equine feed in the face of a disastrous decline in the agricultural sector. Equine feed has become so important that BETA has recently formed a separate feed committee which is about to launch its’ own Code of Practice. Some merchants wholesale and manufacture on a small scale. Although there is a trade in forage much of this trade is direct from the farmer. Mollassed hay (haylage) is now an important part of the diet normally sold through merchants. Bedding is also important Hunting horses eat considerably more than horses used for hacking . Hunting represents £7.6m in annual turnover to these retail feed businesses and 330 jobs.

Feed merchants with an equine turnover.

Except at the very top end of the market leather saddlery and equipment (tack) is facing growing competition from synthetic saddlery and from leather saddlery much of it made in Argentina, India, Pakistan and the Far East. Most bits and stirrups (hardware) now come from Communist China. There is only one British manufacturrer of hardware left. The strong £ has made these imports highly competitive. Hunting people are strong buyers of British made leather saddlery, because of its quality (safety is a prime consideration out hunting), durability and comfort. 90 percent of British leather saddlery and bridlework is made in Walsall and the immediate area where there are 60 equestrian related businesses employing some 500 people. * Total saddlery manufactures are worth £52m pa.**. Hunting equipment (tack) is worth £4.6m. We estimate that £3m of this originates in Walsall representing 130 jobs from a total of 200 jobs. A ban, combined with the effect of the strong £, will probably reduce the number of equestrian businesses in the town to 40 in the next two years (see Saddlery Exports below).

The UK manufacturing sector is under severe pressure in export markets. Manufacturers require a firm UK market from which they can export. The UK is still a net exporter of saddlery but the figure is going down. The trade is expecting the 1999 figures to be a good deal worse. Exports dropped by £.6m between 1995 and 1998 and in real terms by £1.6m. Exports to the EC fell by £2.3m.

Most of this manufacture originates in Walsall. Until 1996 a loss of £3m in UK sales would have been directed to exports. This is no longer a possibility as the strong £ has put the town under very severe pressure to the point where local manufacturers have formed their own Quality Mark to persuade buyers to buy Walsall made products. It has had little effect.

The traditional centre of hunt clothing manufacture is around Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire. There is still some traditional breeches making in Leicestershire and boot making in Wales and Northampton. Hunting people prefer the protection and appearance of leather. However the vast majority of riding boots now sold are made of rubber or other synthetics. London still tailors hand made hunt clothing but the vast majority of hunt clothing is ready made, much of it informal. Hunt members spend £108m on hunt clothing *. To this you have to add the much larger market for clothing worn for daily exercise, mucking out, doing stables etc. This is more likely to be anoraks, jodhpurs, rubber shoes and tee shirts much of it is imported. Britain is a major manufacturer of rubber wellington boots. Hunting represents £14m at wholesale prices and 609 jobs to the clothing trade.

Britain has two of the largest manufacturers of compound and other horse feed in Europe. 200,000 tonnes of compound feed are manufactured in Britain annually. Both are specialist businesses and between them account for 60% of the market. They believe that some 40 jobs would go if hunting stopped. This trade is worth £11m and 480 jobs in the feed manufacturing sector.

It is worth pointing out that publishing is part of the trade although we treat it separately because much of its sale goes through the news trade. In Britain we have the largest publishing sector in the world of equestrian books and magazines outside the USA. That is hardly surprising since we have 2.4 million riders.

We have the worlds largest circulating weekly magazine, Horse and Hound, which is a hunting magazine. In 1996 our research showed that Horse and Hound was read in 33% of all riding households and in 87% of all professional establishments. A very high percentage of horses for hunting are sold in the classified pages of Horse and Hound. Hunting also supports at least two other specialist magazines and a flourishing book publishing trade worth an estimated £100,000.

Percentages represent the manufacturing and distribution element of total expenditure on these categories.The balance appears under retailers.The figures exclude publishing.

We give below our analysis of each ‘Trade’ sector in terms of annual turnover and total employment provided by hunting. The hunting numbers are in italics:

The equestrian industry in the UK is by far the largest in Europe with 2.4m riders and 800,000 horses. Germany comes next with 1.2m registered riders and a further estimated 600,000 unregistered riders. Dressage is the most important discipline in Germany. France comes third with 800,000 registered riders. The USA has fewer ‘English’, as opposed to ‘Western’, riders than Britain.

Riding is a sport or pastime which has wide appeal to young females of all classes. (NES Chart 16. NES Chart 22c). Hunting is more attractive to men although women predominate, it is more egalitarian ( a 3% lower percentage of Abs) and is more attractive to people aged 16 to 44 (15% above the figure for all riders.

In spite of its shortcomings and problems our equestrian industry is a huge success story. That success stems from hunting. Hunting gave ordinary riders access to the country, it gave them an appetite for jumping fences which led in turn to the disciplines of showjumping, eventing and team chasing, point to point and national hunt racing. It still provides that impetus. 600,000 riders take part in some form of competition every year (NES Chart 23). We discuss the importance of shows and competitions below.

The NES deals with the whole equestrian economy of which by far the largest part is drawn from people who simply ride (hack ) - 53% (NES Overview Chart 17). It also true that hunting and the other disciplines are, head for head, more important economically than the average numbers suggest. Common sense tells us that horses, equipment, clothing and feed are consumed in greater volume by those involved in activities and disciplines compared to hacking. Common sense also tells us that people who hunt are more likely to take part in equestrian competitive activity than people who simply hack.

Hunting is unique in that hunt establishments are major consumers. No other discipline has formal establishments . Hunt establishments provide £9.1m (Alliance : Employment Generated by Foxhunting 98) to the equestrian economy annually).

The equestrian ‘Industry’ has grown to supply this market and over the centuries has developed specialist skills such as saddlery, farriery, lorinery, breeches making, boot making, hunter breeding, livery yards and modern specialist services including horseboxes, veterinary services, fence building, course designing, timekeeping , publishing, riding clubs and so on.

In this section we deal with the separate elements of the Industry other than the Trade.

Farriers are one of the groups for which hunting is of key importance . 56,000 horses kept primarily for hunting represent not only winter income but a higher return per animal. Hunting horses spend considerable time being exercised and ridden on hard surfaces. They require shoeing more frequently and lose shoes more often than any other group of horses with the exception of racehorses.

Riding schools do teach people about hunting and some specialise in it but their principle purpose is simply to teach riding. Hunting is a major motivator for people who want to ride in the countryside and many riding establishments send customers hunting to satisfy this demand. Many obtain secondary income from hunting liveries, hirelings and organising hunter trials. 27% of horses owned by Schools/Liveries are used for hunting (NES Chart 42).

Veterinary surgeons derive important income from hunting. Horses which are required for hunting are looked after with great care since they have to be fit.

These are sold direct to the public. They include horseboxes, stables, fencing, pasture maintenance, equine dentists, chiropractors and rug cleaning.

Hunting is as important economically as eventing or showjumping (NES Overview Chart 17) .Hunts organise a large number of equestrian activity which attracts participants from the riding clubs, Pony Club and other disciplines.

Hunter trials, point to points are obvious examples of hunt related competitions. Horse trials, affiliated and unaffiliated showjumping competitions, team chases and agricultural and breed shows are part of the fabric of the industry to all of which hunting contributes volunteer workers, stewards, time keepers and mounted runners. There are 1286 show and event secretaries and1100 clubs and organisations in Britain (BED. 1999) many of the run by hunt supporters. It does not stop there, the welfare organisations and charities rely on volunteers too. The RDA is full of hunting and ex-hunting volunteers. Without these people it would be impossible to run most shows and competitions. Alas there are no figures to prove this or disprove it.

The Pony Club which is based on hunting does more to teach children how to ride and particularly about hunting than most The major organisations like the BHS and the BSJA all have members who hunt. There are over 1000 organisations in the UK.

A group which depends on hunting particularly is made up from the various specialist dealers, auctioneers and agents who find and sell hunters. Some of these are operating as livery yards, others are sole proprietor businesses. Hunting people often buy from dealers or from auction. At 10% of the value these businesses derive £1.2m of annual income representing 52 jobs from hunting. We have estimated that of the 56,000 horses used mainly for hunting and worth £92m around 7000 are bought every year at an average of £1700 (NES Chart 31).

Hunter breeding has been the backbone of the riding horse breeding industry. Hunting people normally buy their horses at 4 or 5 years although many also breed their own. Often these horses come from farmers with a few brood mares. It is widely regarded as a possible diversification from the agricultural sector.

Hunting also provides an outlet for thoroughred horses not suitable for racing and rehabilitation for racehorses in need of a break. All this means economic activity on a considerable scale and over a long period.

We give below the key numbers for the industry as a whole and then our analysis of each ‘Industry’ sector in terms of annual turnover and total employment provided by hunting. (The total number of businesses in each sector is given in brackets) :

If anyone doubts the economic importance of this industry they have only to visit Badminton Horse Trials which attracts 250,000 visitors or our own BETA International Trade Fair which attracts buyers from over 40 countries. It is a £2.5bn industry and that is a conservative number.

To understand the effect that a ban would have it is necessary to understand the nature and make up of the industry, its place in the rural economy, its weaknesses and its strengths and the nature of the hunting community. We attempt to give you this background.

The elements of the industry are all those set out in the Chart ‘Hunting - The Industry turnover and employment’ above.

There are some elements however which are not quantifiable but of great importance. The social cohesion provided by hunting has developed into formal activity socially and more important, from our point of view, organisationally The reservoir of hunting people who run miriad shows, competitions and events for horses are now part of the fabric of the horse world. Hunt run equestrian activities attract competitors and participants from the non hunting community, for example endurance riders participate in hunt cross-country rides. We try to estimate how much of this activity might be replaced by other ‘disciplines’.

Many anti hunting people fail to appreciate that hunting is not a discipline like dressage or showjumping. Some think that people go hunting for the riding alone (although some do) and that it would be simple to substitute it with some mechanical or artificial alternative. If hunting is banned something will replace it but what and will it replace it in full ? We believe that the economic impact on the industry ( setting aside environmental and other considerations) is inevitably tied up with alternatives to hunting and the question of migration to these alternatives particularly draghunting. We try to indicate in this section how we think that change may happen and the impact it will have on the equestrian industry.

Finally there is the question of time. We attempt to put the consequences of a ban into three time frames ;

There has been some mismanagement at the national level. The lack of an identity is part of this problem. The horse world is highly fragmented. Each discipline is fighting for members, a share of sponsorship money, television time and scarce management talent. Showjumping , which used to have national prime time television coverage, is now hardly featured.

The riding school sector is under severe pressure from subsidised colleges and from rating problems. According to the Association of British Riding Schools 800 licensed schools have closed in the last three years.

Many businesses are run on amateur lines and there is a lack of professionalism in business matters in our own retail sector and in the riding school sector. They are often incapable of reacting to changing circumstances in the rural economy and tougher trading conditions. Last year 80 retail businesses closed. The year 2000 has started with two major retail receiverships. Hunting people have not been spending in the way they used.

The strong £ has had a serious effect on manufacturing and on overseas visitors who form an important market for riding schools, trekking centres and major retailers.

One cannot overestimate the effect which an unprecedented spate of fatalities in Eventing has on parents with children keen to take up riding nor the effect of publicity given to high profile paraplegics such as Christopher Reeve.

Other sports are marketing themselves very effectively. The horse world has only just woken up to the need to compete.

The agricultural sector, so long the core of the equestrianism no longer provides the reservoir of young riders it once used. Recruits to riding are coming more and more from suburban backgrounds. They are far more susceptible to other alternatives. There is no longer the stability there once was. Farmers, once the backbone of the retail and feed sector are simply no longer buying anything but the essentials.

The irony of this situation is that farmers are looking to diversify into this industry no longer as participants but as suppliers of horses and livery facilities for a market which has no room for them.

We have a very popular leisure activity made up of 2.4 million riders with proven latent demand -over 1m people say that they might like to try riding (NES 1996 ).

The National Riding Festival sponsored by Jeep is a serious attempt to increase newcomers to riding. JNRF is targeting an extra 200,000 riders over the next 4 years. We have a sport which encourages a healthy lifestyle, responsibility, comradeship, compassion and courage. Many parents and teachers recognise that riding is a good way for young people to spend their leisure time.

The industry, under the British Equestrian Federation, does show signs that it will end up with a sensible structure.

The British Horse Society has a leaner more focused look about it.

The success of the Countryside Alliance in motivating country people has given us hope that hunting will survive. There is no question that access to the countryside is one of the main reasons why people want to ride and we still have unique access to it. Hunting is the only equestrian activity which guarantees that country, otherwise unavailable, is enjoyed by large numbers of ordinary people.

The Eventers success in Europe in 1999 has been a big morale booster.

The upcoming Olympic Games should give riding much needed publicity.

The interest of the Royal family and their support for equestrianism is a huge bonus.

The industry will be pinning its hopes on drag hunting. Our own internal research within the trade has shown considerable scepticism that drag hunting will provide anything like a realistic alternative.

The very nature of the sport excludes those who do not want to ride fast across country and we know that hunting attracts a higher than average number of older riders (NES Chart 22 b). Draghunting is primarily a young man’s sport. The NES figures show that only 23% of all riders are aged 16 – 24 and that 23% are male (NES Chart 12). We also know that a higher percentage of hunters are men – 32% (NES Chart 22 a). A realistic way of forecasting the migration to draghunting might be to take young male hunt members as the most likely market for draghunting. There are 17,000 hunt subscribers of these 5440 are men (32%) and of these 1250 (23%) are aged 16-24. Clearly some will not go and others outside this age group will go. Equally some young women will go. There are many more of them (2600). If half go draghunting the total number of migrants would be 2580.

The number of horses used ‘primarily for hunting’ was 56,000. If 3800 go draghunting there is a balance of 52,200 to be absorbed into the rest of the equestrian economy.

We expect that there will be a great reluctance by hunting people simply to destroy their horses, although many probably will take this option. No one knows how many of the 56,000 horses will be destroyed. Some will be put out to grass and cease to be economically productive. Some may be used for breeding. Others will be sold to riding schools as replacements. Others will be ridden but probably not replaced. The rest will be destroyed. This will happen over the first two years.

There are 17000 core hunting people who own 37,000 horses * and perhaps a further 20000 ‘regulars’ accounting for the 56000 horses. We estimate that 9250 will be either put out to grass or destroyed within the first year. This reduces the overall total to 46750 horses and ponies in year 1.

(It is worth pointing out that the abattoirs will have a huge problem. There will of course be no fallen stock service from hunts.)

The other immediate effect is that relating to personal expenditure, clothing, books, lessons, liveries etc. We anticipate an immediate 80 percent reduction in purchase of traditional hunting clothing (hunt coats, breeches, top boots, hunt caps). This does not mean that other equestrian clothing purchased by hunting people who continue riding will be so drastically effected. We think that in Year 1 it will probably be minimal, say 5% of clothing expenditure - £ 1.7m. Feed sales will be hit straight away. In the first year £3.1m will go. Veterinary and farriery services will be reduced.

We assume that the remaining horses will drop out of the economy over a period of three to four years. The total loss of horses and ponies will be 44,800 .

Personal expenditure on clothing in the medium term will decline but at an accelerating rate at the end of the 4 year cycle but probably not to the full value of the market (£34m). Feed sales will decline sharply in Year 2. Lessons on the other hand will probably not be affected very much in the medium term. Some children will be part of the migration and many occasional hunting people will continue with their other equestrian activities few of these take lessons. The effect will be long term. The hireling and livery markets will decline sharply in the second year as more hunting people give up their horses and will have all but disappeared by the end of the 4 year cycle. The Survey puts this at £7m. All but 20 percent will disappear.